China – Currency Manipulating Protectionists or President Obama’s scapegoat?

March 20th, 2010

An excellent, absolutely must-read piece in this weekend’s Wall Street Journal – The Yuan Scapegoat – and a timely rejoinder to calls for China to orchestrate a revaluation of the Yuan so that all will be well with global imbalances, US trade deficit etc.

And before we get started, those of you not familiar with the deep interdependence of the America and Chinese economies could have it summed up as what the excellent Niall Ferguson calls Chimerica;

To put it very simply, one half did the saving and the other half did the spending. Comparing net national savings as a proportion of gross national income, American savings declined from above 5 per cent in the mid 1990s to virtually zero by 2005, while Chinese savings surged from below 30 per cent to nearly 45 per cent. This divergence in saving allowed a tremendous explosion of debt in the United States because one effect of what Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, called the Asian “savings glut” was to make it very much cheaper for households to borrow money – and to a lesser extent for the government to borrow money – than would otherwise have been the case.

Back to the WSJ piece. Ok, so China pegs its Yuan to the dollar at about 6.83 and if it was floating, it would be worth a lot more because of the US recession and continued growth in China. However, the point is that currency pegs are not just about mercantilism – far from it. They are also about exchange rate stability and stable monetary policy.  Those were after all the two main reasons for the creation of the Euro (thank God we never joined it!) and all the legion currency pegs that have existed in the past and continue to exist today.

The WSJ leader adds that “China is right to resist calls for devaluation, not least because a large revaluation could damage growth. China has learned from the experience of Japan, which bowed to similar US currency pressure in the 1980s and 1990s” which as we all know was followed by a prolonged bout of deflation and near zero growth.  Less observed though is that Japan continued to run a trade surplus, as imports fell with slower internal growth and cross-border prices adjusted.  Whilst conceding that the current situation is not ideal, a far better solution to the revaluation says the WSJ would be to address the shortcomings of the yuan’s development as a tradable currency and disintermediate China’s central bank who keeps buying US T-Bills or Fannie Mae Securities which it calls a huge misallocation of global resources.  What the Chinese could do would be to make the yuan convertible (+ a small one-time revaluation to 6.5), and let capital and trade flows adjust through private markets rather than the Chinese Central Bank. All of which sounds pretty sensible to me.

Unlike a spectacularly worse solution that is now being proposed by none other than Paul Krugman, who is actually advocating a 25% surcharge on Chinese goods.  As Jeremy Warner cogently observes;

Let us briefly consider what would happen if Professor Krugman got his way and there was either a 25 per cent devaluation of the dollar against the renminbi or 25 per cent import duties. Almost overnight China would sink into a deep recession as exporters already operating on wafer-thin margins were plunged into insolvency“.

A Chinese recession  really matters a lot because as I wrote in Spring 2007 (the May 2008 date shown is incorrect) for World Finance Magazine – The Nightmare of a Chinese Economic Collapse – the country could quite literally implode into a morass of ethnic tensions and profound rural unrest and may even try to maintain unity by lashing out at Taiwan, which America is pledged to defend.

When you start a trade war, you just don’t know where it’s going to end. No doubt, some genius at the European Commission is already thinking about how to implement a 30% import tariff on US goods because the Euro is seriouly over-valued against the US Dollar.

Now back to the real world. Can I just say that I for one, have been very impressed with my Chinese printers – who are cheaper, better, keener and almost as fast thanks to air freight as my local ones.  No wonder the price of paper pulp has shot up since last year because of Chinese demand . . .

No, the UK government is not in (very great) danger of default

March 13th, 2010

I love this chart . . .

it shows historical Credit Default Swap spread charts since the beginning of the financial crisis – a gauge of how close a nation is to not being able to finance its debt. As per a point I made in my recent piece in the Wall Street Journal I think these charts show clearly that Ireland’s commitment to reducing public expenditure a year ago has paid dividends in reducing CDS spreads by 150 points, whereas Greece which started at the same level, has gone some way in the other direction. In light of this success – much more pronounced with 5 year bonds (as shown in this chart) perhaps there’s scope for less of an argument being made for the UK following what Canada and Sweden did 15 years ago, and much more of a case for what’s happening in default-defying, tangible real time, just across the Irish Sea?

Meanwhile, thankfully, the UK is not in that much danger of default with a “mere” 90 bp spread. This is still expensive debt servicing at £30 bn plus a year. But it’s a long way from default. Then factor in some other points in the UK’s favour against the likes of Greece;
i) We have a lower base rate 0.5% v. 1% in Euroland
ii) Government debt is much longer term maturity than anywhere else – about 14 years, so no imminent rollover crisis
iii) That government debt is not held largely by foreign creditors – although no one knows precisely by country of origin, but it seems that Insurance Companies, Pension Funds and the Bank of England play a hugely bigger role than foreign investors in the gilts market compared to say Chinese and Japanese owners of T-bills in the USA or German investors in Greek bonds.
iv) The value of the pound has fallen around 25% giving us plenty of upside potential come the recovery. Ok, so it hasn’t happened yet, but who seriously wants to go into a recession and come out of a recovery with a strong currency?

In praise of German local government ingenuity – the pothole tax

March 9th, 2010

I love it.

Unseasonally cold weather in North Western Europe has created a load of potholes across the streets of the old continent but a town in the Ex-Communist East Germany, Niderzimmern, has hit upon a way of makling money from this driver’s blight.

Niederzimmern, not far from Weimar,  and an area I know quite well (and appreciate much more) having spent some time in Jena in my fairly sensible youth – reckons that people will pay to have potholes filled in if they can stamp it with their intials or I love my wife, dog, mistress etc.

Meet the Niederzimmern pothole . . .

I’ve often thought that the problem wth local governnment in the UK is that it is not free to innovate and raise (and cut) funds as it thinks fit. Such an action would probably be unthinkable here. Taxes really do need to be localised and innovative. What’s special about this is that they could potentially raise tax from all over the world to solve a local problem.

According to the local website, they’ve only sold 52 so far.  So seeing as East Germany is emptying of people and the massive transfer of funds from West Germany is finally petering out, this is a really good idea. Three cheers for Niederzimmern !

Micro-hydro – huge potential for the UK?

March 4th, 2010

I keep thinking about this trip I went on last weekend – a tour of micro-hydro plants organised by the South Somerset Hydropower Group. It was a good deal – for £60, we got lunch, coffee x 3 and bussed around 6 quite different micro-hydro sites, with plenty of expert commentary, not least by some very proud owners – full details here. At this time of year as well, these plants are working nearly flat out,  because there has been so much rain (and lots of mud too – I’m such a townie!). Load factors of 70+% are right now about the norm.

Anyway, here’s one of my favourites of the day, Hainbury Mill which has an archimedes screw. The benefits of this technology are that it is; very fish-friendly, virtually no filtering out of river debris required and it’s really quite unusual to look at.

With feed-in-tariffs coming in from the 1st April, it’s anticipated that a mini-boom might come about for micro-hydro. Let’s see – I wouldn’t hold my breath for any government scheme scaling up quickly and efficienctly. For all that, this is different to the pre wind rush of just over a decade ago. Back then, complex regional monitoring of windspeeds was required to get an idea of where the best locations were. This time, the UK already knows where its long-retired 30,000 mills are located and technology has come a long way in the last few years, to enable the extraction of power from low head sites. And micro-hydro has much higher availability, works at a higher load factor – even contributing baseload power than those poster childs of the micro-generation sector – wind and solar.

One more picture – I thought this mill won the beauty prize – Hewletts Mill.

The death of the full-time job . . . ?

February 18th, 2010

Very thoughtful piece by Sean O’Grady in the Independent this morning – So where on earth have all the proper jobs gone?

He observes that while full-time jobs are going down, part-time jobs are increasing. I remember 20 odd years ago some futurist forecasting that in the future, we would all have 3 or 4 jobs and I just couldn’t imagine it, less still than that would be happening to me now.

On one level, it’s great that not everyone has to become conformist corporate wage slaves anymore.  But the self-employed, portfolio jobber requires a surplus of work to make it work for him and must generate higher savings because cash flow is much less predictable and work much less secure.  Benefits are in short supply.

On that last point, I was at an excellent seminar at Civitas with Dr Irwin Stelzer this lunchtime. I was very taken during the discussion about China, that the savings rate there was as high as 50%, because there was absolutely no welfare to fall back on, which is why – even after years of growth – the Chinese consumer is still something of an oxymoron.

In Ireland – deep public sector cuts are working . . .

February 14th, 2010

There’s been a lot of policy chatter  over the last year in the UK about the lessons the Britain can learn from Canada and Sweden-  at least a decade or more ago – on cutting government expenditure harder and faster than anyone really wants. That’s all fine, but why not look across the Irish Sea and watch it happen  in real time?

Almost exactly one year ago, spreads on Ireland’s five-year credit default swaps rose to a record 377 basis points – about where Greece is now.Today, they are nothing like that. The difference is, Ireland got ruthless with the public sector and Greece almost certainly won’t.

Of the PIIGs, the markets have far more confidence in Ireland’s ability to recover at a sustainably higher rate, because they chose the roughest medicine early on and swallowed it whole.  The PIIGs (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) are becoming the PIGs without Ireland.

No one is talking about an Irish default any more.  Go figure.

So three cheers for Ireland for showing Britain not only what can be done with ultra-competitive low taxes to attract investment and generate exceptional growth in the good times. And more cheers for demonstrating how to deal with a severe financial crisis like we have now – tackling it head-on.

The Alternative Manifesto – By Dr Eamonn Butler

February 12th, 2010

The other day, we had our inaugural private EPC dinner with politicians, thought-leaders and leading members of the business community – it was terrific. And we had a real treat, because Dr Eamonn Butler of the Adam Smith Institute agreed to step in at the last moment to speak about his new book;

The Alternative Manifesto – a 12 step programme to remake Britain

I haven’t yet read the whole book, but having read the chapter on tax, I can tell you, it’s very fluently written and cogently argued in a non-technical, accessible way. I’m sure it will do well. I’m also quite into the can-do, will-succeed ethos that pervades this oeuvre. And, more than that, as well as being without ego, I’m very struck by the way Eamonn goes out of his way to give credit to other people – all too rare in today’s plagiaristic copy and past world. In my view, those two character traits show true intellectual class.

The good doctor is also pretty nifty with an iphone – he was asked to speak for 10 minutes and did so to the second, timing himself, as I noticed out of the corner of my eye, with some slick countdown app !

Don’t bail out Greece – give back the Elgin Marbles instead

February 11th, 2010

Everyone is getting pretty worked up about Greece. Now it’s heading for a bailout, some of us think it’s pretty ridiculous that as non-members of the Euro, the UK may have to contribute to the bailout package. Others like Hamish McRae on the Independent argue that helping Greece is akin to helping Northern Rock because it represents a systemic risk to the entire European Banking system just as Northern Rock was to the UK.

Well, I’m not so sure. My gut feeling is that we should hold on to as much capital as we’ve got – especially if you think as Prof. David Blanchflower does, deflation remains a serious risk two years out from now.

However, there is one long overdue action that will create an enormous amount of intangible goodwill between Britain and Greece – returning the Elgin Marbles.

So get on and do it !

A double-dip recession? It’s the anecdotal evidence that troubles me

February 9th, 2010

One of the things I always like to ask shopkeepers, restaurant owners and small businesses in general when I’m out and about is this;

How’s business?

What’s interesting is I always get a pretty detailed response, usually with a fairly upbeat spin. This last month it has been markedly different. What troubles me is that those answers have been decidedly negative over the last couple of weeks.  January is always bad for retail, but the volume of snow, renewed concerns about the housing market, the end of QE and a rumbling crisis in euroland have conspired to make it a lot worse.

That’s why with the UK only emerging out of recession by a measly 0.1% could drop back yet into recession – double-dippers may yet be right.

Morning Economics Roundup – Monday 4th Jan 2010

January 4th, 2010

Data to be released today;

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)  Construction Index (of the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics) – subscription data available from here.

Big thems of the day;

Factory activity at 25-month high – “Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years in December, buoyed by a sharp jump in new orders, a survey showed on Monday. The CIPS/Markit purchasing managers’ index rose to 54.1 last month, above the consensus forecast of 52.0 and after a surprise fall to 51.8 in November”.  See Reuters.

Tories have £34bn black hold in spending plans, says Alistair Darling – “The Tories were accused today by the chancellor, Alistair Darling, of having a £34bn black hole in their spending plans as the main parties stepped up their pre-election attacks. A 148-page dossier released by Labour ahead of a press conference by David Cameron, the Conservative leader, said the Tories had only explained how they would pay for £11bn of £45bn in spending pledges”. See the Guardian.

David Cameron launches Tory general election manifesto – “David Cameron will today set out the manifesto he hopes will win the general election while dispatching members of the shadow cabinet to seize the initiative with voters in marginal constituencies. He will place the economy at the top of his party’s agenda, in a speech at Westminster”. See The Telegraph.

Comment and blogs of the day;

Roger Bootle. There are tough times ahead but my money’s on a resurgent UK – “In economic terms, 2009 was one of the most calamitous years in the nation’s history. I suppose it is fitting that forecasters should have shared in this misery, professionally as well as personally. n fact, my own forecasts did not do too badly, all things considered. Even so, the overall tone of my end of term report should be “could have done better”.” See Daily Telegraph.

Allister Heath. Why 2010 will be make or break for UK – “T is hard to believe that just three years ago the UK economy was still being lauded as a great success story; our fall from grace has been spectacular. In 2007, London was overtaking New York as the financial capital of the world, with a resurgent Britannia gracing the covers of US news magazines; today, as the new decade begins, we are being bracketed with the likes of Italy and Greece as nations that might soon default on our national debt”. See City AM.

Hamish McRae. Some reasons to be cheerful in the bumpy months ahead of us – “Anew year brings a new opportunity for economists to humiliate themselves by getting the forecasts utterly wrong. No major forecasting body caught correctly the scale of the slump in the UK last year – all were too optimistic – so why should people take seriously any commentaries, including this one, about the likely path of the economy this year?” See The Indepedent.

Ashley Seager. Britain faces a new age of austerity to repay government debts – “The challenge for whichever party wins this year’s election will be to maintain public services on a much tighter budget. “Great Britain should endeavour to accommodate her future views and designs to the real mediocrity of her circumstances.” So wrote the legendary Scottish economist Adam Smith in An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations in 1776″. See The Guardian.

Jeremy Warner. Britain yet to face the psychological pain of its new economic status – “Nobody brave enough to have joined the hordes at London’s Brent Cross shopping centre over the past week or two would have believed that we have just been through the deepest economic recession since the 1930s. But it is not just the high street which is skipping along as if once more in the midst of a full scale boom. Restaurants are full, gazumping has returned to the posher end of the London housing market, the stock market has enjoyed a record breaking rally, the art market has revived and fine wines are again achieving top prices at auction”. See Daily Telegraph.